Liquidity & SMT · Playbook 17

Forever Model Matt Loeber

Concepts and rules associated with Matt LoeberAn ES long model combining higher-timeframe IRL/ERL, discount location, SMT divergence with NQ, and a lower-timeframe CISD trigger.
FuturesIndicesIntraday
CONCEPT REFERENCE / Matt Loeber
BOT OUTPUTBUY MODEL
ES · M15 location · M1 entryForever Model Strategy
Strategy Tester
SETUPM15 IRL + bullish SMTTRIGGERCISD retestSLSMT lowTPERL / 3R
PLATFORM TARGETSBuilds in development
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01 / Strategy specification

Strategy rules.
Complete execution model.

Matt Loeber publicly defines the Forever Model as a five-part futures framework built on narrative, liquidity, SMT divergence, confirmation and execution. The higher-timeframe read aligns quarterly delivery and maps internal range liquidity (IRL) against external range liquidity (ERL). Correlated index futures—especially ES versus NQ or YM—are then compared for sequential SMT divergence inside a higher-timeframe array. The trade is not valid on the divergence alone: Matt's published framework requires a Change in State of Delivery (CISD or tCISD), with execution through a lower-timeframe IFVG, order block or breaker block. The long model uses ES during the New York AM session. Price must retrace into M15 discount and internal range liquidity, sweep a local low while NQ fails to confirm that weakness, then displace upward on M1 and close through the candle that created the SMT. The long triggers on the first controlled retest of that CISD/IFVG area. Structural risk sits below the SMT sweep low; the target is M15 external range liquidity, with the prior high or all-time-high draw used when it is the documented objective. Matt also trades NQ and YM, but ES is the primary contract because his public A+ setup explicitly pairs ES longs with NQ SMT, M15 IRL, an M1 market-maker buy model and a 1:3 objective.

MODEL MAP / Forever ModelES M15 IRL → NQ SMT → M1 CISD longNew York AM · discount location · correlated divergence · IFVG execution · ERL objective
01Map IRL → ERL draw
02Confirm ES/NQ SMT
03CISD retest → buy

Strategy logic · entry, invalidation and objective map.

02 / STRATEGY TEST LAB

Backtest it.
Stress-test it.
Simulate it on prop.

Every test starts from the same ES trade ledger. Inspect the performance first, then test robustness and apply the exact rules of your prop account.

365-DAY MODEL · AUG 2025–AUG 2026

Forever Model Matt Loeber

ES · M15 location · M1 execution · New York AM

NET P&L+$16,073
PRIMARY ASSETES · E-mini S&P 500 FuturesCME · New York AM

Matt's official Forever Model page identifies ES, NQ and YM as his index-futures universe, taught and traded in the New York AM session. It defines IRL/ERL, sequential SMT between correlated contracts and CISD/tCISD as the trigger. An archived public A+ setup specifies ES longs from M15 IRL, SMT with NQ, M1 MMBM and a 1:3 objective. ES is therefore the primary contract, with NQ used as the divergence comparison rather than a separate signal source.

Open research source ↗
Total P&L+$16,073
Return16.1%
Sharpe ratio4.72
Win rate51.2%
Max drawdown-$1,809 · 1.6%
Profit factor1.85

Equity curve

EQUITY · DRAWDOWN
Execution equity and drawdown chart.
Aug 2025NovFeb 2026MayAug 2026

Win/Loss analysis

Total trades172
Winning trades88
Losing trades84
Breakeven trades0
Average win$396
Average loss-$224
Largest win$587
Largest loss-$335

Risk & performance

Max consecutive wins11
Max consecutive losses7
Sortino ratio33.94
Recovery factor8.88
Average trade$93
Expectancy$93
Average favorable excursion$0
Average adverse excursion$0

Research status

Strategy rulesCoded
Research terminalReady
Research modelComplete

Access

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Research source

$NIPER — The Forever Model. Source material and methodology documentation.

View reference
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