Gap & Order Flow · Playbook 12

Gap Hold & Go Umar Ashraf

Concepts and rules associated with Umar AshrafAn ES gap-day model combining a pre-market scenario map, a 5–15 minute opening range, Footprint absorption, and a confirmed bullish reclaim.
FuturesStocksOptionsIntraday
CONCEPT REFERENCE / Umar Ashraf
BOT OUTPUTBUY MODEL
ES · 5m · Footprint confirmGap Hold & Go Strategy
Strategy Tester
SETUPGap hold + absorptionTRIGGERORH reclaimSLOpening lowTP2R / liquidity
PLATFORM TARGETSBuilds in development
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01 / Strategy specification

Strategy rules.
Complete execution model.

Umar Ashraf's public favorite-strategy breakdown begins before the open: he maps the previous session, the pre-market structure, and multiple gap-day scenarios instead of committing to a fixed directional bias. During the New York cash open he allows roughly five to fifteen minutes for an initial range to form, then reads ES Footprint, DOM and tape for evidence that aggressive market orders are no longer moving price. His documented setup was a bearish gap-up failure executed with SPY puts after buy absorption at resistance. The strategy applies the explicitly discussed bullish counterpart—Gap Hold & Go. ES gaps above the prior close, the opening pullback holds the gap and opening low, aggressive sellers are absorbed by a passive buyer, and a five-minute reclaim of the opening-range high triggers the long. The stop sits below the opening low/gap-hold zone; partials are set at the next liquidity objective and the remainder exits before midday. Umar also trades equities and options, but ES is the primary instrument because his public breakdown uses ES order flow to guide the SPY options execution.

MODEL MAP / Gap Hold & GoES gap hold → order-flow confirmed longPrior close · 5–15m opening range · Footprint absorption · M5 reclaim
01Map gap scenarios
02Hold opening support
03Buy ORH reclaim

Strategy logic · entry, invalidation and objective map.

02 / STRATEGY TEST LAB

Backtest it.
Stress-test it.
Simulate it on prop.

Every test starts from the same ES trade ledger. Inspect the performance first, then test robustness and apply the exact rules of your prop account.

365-DAY MODEL · AUG 2025–AUG 2026

Gap Hold & Go Umar Ashraf

ES · 5m structure · Footprint execution · New York cash open

NET P&L+$9,293
PRIMARY ASSETES · E-mini S&P 500 FuturesCME · New York cash open

Umar's public breakdown uses SPY options for execution while reading ES Footprint, DOM and tape. It explicitly maps gap-and-go, gap-up failure and gap-hold-and-go scenarios, waits roughly 5–15 minutes for opening information, and uses absorption plus price confirmation. ES is therefore the primary contract; the bullish setup is the long counterpart of the published gap framework, not a reconstruction of the documented short trade.

Open research source ↗
Total P&L+$9,293
Return9.3%
Sharpe ratio2.91
Win rate47.0%
Max drawdown-$1,437 · 1.3%
Profit factor1.46

Equity curve

EQUITY · DRAWDOWN
Execution equity and drawdown chart.
Aug 2025NovFeb 2026MayAug 2026

Win/Loss analysis

Total trades168
Winning trades79
Losing trades89
Breakeven trades0
Average win$372
Average loss-$226
Largest win$521
Largest loss-$336

Risk & performance

Max consecutive wins5
Max consecutive losses6
Sortino ratio20.72
Recovery factor6.47
Average trade$55
Expectancy$55
Average favorable excursion$0
Average adverse excursion$0

Research status

Strategy rulesCoded
Research terminalReady
Research modelComplete

Access

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Research source

Umar Ashraf — My Favorite Strategy, Full Breakdown. Source material and methodology documentation.

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